2008-09-21

Level of Excellence



這是我喜歡的一幅圖畫,是從財富雜誌2006年10月剪下來,它描述了不同層次的能力。

一般來講,是用四分法,可分為:

財富今次最有趣是加了兩項:
- 知道自己醒
- 知道自己醒(然後跌落河,重新開始過!)

大家共勉。

2008-09-15

我的計算尺


這也許是古董,是執拾是「發掘」出來的。

未正式用過,而是廿年前有次在書局大平賣時買回來的(約$20),當時其實電子計算機已經流行,買的原因只是作收藏(貪其size小)。

現在用計算機的朋友,可能不知計算尺的原理,(其實電子計算機如何運作的原理也不知!)發明計算尺的人很聰明,用logorithm的方法,將乘除赤裸裸地變成加減:
log(A x B) = (log A) + (log B)
log(A ÷ B) = (log A) - (log B)

如計算1.5乘2,在A尺度set 1.5,即將B尺度的1移到A尺度的1.5(如圖),再用紅線方在B尺度的2,便可看到在A尺度的答案3。

除了乘除外,計算尺還可在其他尺度計算sine/cosine/tangent/平方/立方等等!

單看其複雜但精細的尺度也是美感!


2008-02-24

你值的擁有!

這是一化妝品牌在廣告中的motto。坦白講,我覺得這句話是很不順耳的。雖廣告目的是叫人購買,好像無可口非,但問題在於「值的」的意義!

現在很多人,已分不清「想要」的「需要」,導致很多人在物質化社會中泥足深陷。如果我們更加用「值的擁有」來合理化「想要」:如工作那麼辛苦,便值得用私人貸款借錢去歐遊;如讀書成績好,便值得有要求父母送一部PSP以作獎勵等等。

其實,我們要認真思考一下何謂「值的」,思考一下自已得到和已付出的。希望大家可長養一份「感恩」的心

我聽「馬怡靜」

馬怡靜Eugenia Ma的《給我最愛》CD Album,是我2005年逛旺角某一閣樓CD舖時聽試播聽到的。她唱是全是舊歌,但演繹方法令我耳目一新;她的聲線就叫我著迷。我就買了這隻CD。

RIP成MP3後,馬怡靜一直是我的MP3機播放率最高,她有少少磁性聲線,有點Jazz的味道。尤其是《Masquerade》,配合「一粒粒」的鋼琴配樂,好像是在酒廊聽歌那般relaxing。其他歌曲中,音樂的敲擊部份最叫我驚喜,有一點隨意,但又和歌唱部份協調得到。

我是有介紹給我的朋友聽,但他們的feedback不算好:唱功麻麻,有點粗。我亦有在forum看到不好的comments。但是自己想想,聽歌可是很個人的,我始終喜歡Eugenia那份raw的感覺!

2008-02-09

Easter Day Calculator

Triggered by the question why the Easter day in each year is different, I find an algorithm at the U.S. Naval Observatory website at http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/easter.php. I then write the calculator using VB.NET and Excel as follows:

2008-02-03

Installing a DVD writer on my old WIN98SE PC

My home PC is running at WIN98SE, with an old P3 grade Celeron 850MHz CPU and 256M RAM. Frankly speaking, I am still satisfied with its performance (fast boot up and power off time) because I just mainly use it for Internet web browsing. I even recently install GIMP to touch those photos taken by Canon CHDK hack (See my Yahoo Blog in Chinese)

I used to have an old CD writer (model: Philips PCRW1208) but it has been faulty for more than 1 year and I do not use it any more. Recently, I got an impulse to install Ubuntu (a Linux distribution). Since the old BIOS does not support booting from USB flash drive, I need a working CD-ROM drive to proceed.

Although I can buy an old CD-ROM drive (about HK$50), I think if I can use DVD disk to my hard disk backup as well, I will feel better because my recent digital photo file sizes grow at nearly 1GB per month.

After gathering information from Internet, I confirm a DVD drive can be installed in my old PC via IDE without any additional drivers. In order to minimize the risk, I just bought the cheapest model (LG GSA-H54N) which costs just HK$190. Although it is cheap, it still supports all prevailing DVD formats (DVD ± R/RW as well as Double Layer). However, I cannot use the bundled software (Nero Express, PowerProducer and PowerDVD) because they all need at least WIN2K or above. Worst still, the original Adaptec Easy CD Creator 4 (now acquired by Roxio) bundled with the old Philips driver does not recognize the new drive.

Fortunately, I can find free burning software on Internet which still supports WIN98SE. I downloaded ImgBurn Version 2.3.2 as well as InfraRecorder version 0.44.1. Although both applications can recognize my new drive, InfraRecorder still disables the OK button in the BURN dialog (though the revision history stated that 0.44.1 did solve this problem!)

Finally, after some trial, I successfully use ImgBurn to burn DVD-R and DVR+RW on my new LG drive. (Just one comment, the User-interface of ImgBurn is quite technical and I need to take some time to get along with.)

Back to my Ubuntu installation. After backing up my important files in the hard disk, I start the Ubuntu installation (on the same hard disk with my WIN98SE but in a separate partition). Everything is fine except the following:

  • my FAT32 partition is mounted with UTF encoding, though actually it should be BIG5 (in order to minimize risk, I unmount this partition, but it also disconnect the bridge between the Windows world and and Linux world)
  • the SIS 630 Video driver is not installed properly (I need to boot back Windows and reconfirm the hardware configuration and go back to Ubuntu to manually install the driver)
  • my soft modem is not working (Oh!, there is still no solution yet.)
  • SCIM Chinese table is not installed by default, though I have selected Chinese as the default locale. ( I need to boot back Windows to download the relevant SCIM package only a flash driver and install it in Ubuntu.

So far, I am very satisfied with my recent adventure with my old PC.

2008-01-13

增長股的 P/E(市盈率)

自問是個保守的投資者,一向不會買P/E值高過20的股票,但這使我在過往一兩年香港的大牛市錯過不少的賺錢機會。我便檢討檢討:

  1. 股票價格是反映買賣雙方對這公司將來期望:買方認為現價是超值;而賣方認為現價是不值。(否則就沒有成交!)
    但是 P/E 和其他會計數字一樣,是歷史值(Historical Value)。雖然有人會公佈今年會計年度的預測數字,但都只是預測,不能作準!

  2. 看林森池的《平民資本家》知道增長股要用 PEG 市盈率相對增長率 (Price Earning / Growth) 來比較才更有參考價值。如果公司有Growth大過 P/E,那麼PEG 就會小過1。
連忙到維基網看看PEG是甚麼。http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio提到PEG是沒有數學基礎!

The PEG ratio is only a rule of thumb despite its wide use, and has no accepted underlying mathematical basis...

自問讀過少少數學,起碼也要再看看究竟!(有興趣的可打打以下書釘:http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/invfables/ch7new.pdf)但始終不明白其道理。

好罷,自己翻看舊的財務書本,refresh 自己的理論基礎:
用 Discount Model,可將公司以價值寫成以後的盈利現在值總和:


其中 Et 為 t 年度的Earning, r 為 required rate of return
當 E1 = E2 = E



即是市盈率亦是 Required rate of return 的倒數!

不過如果Earning 是以每年 g (growth rate) 增長的話,即




那麼市盈率就是Rate of return 減 Growth Rate的倒數!這解釋了我們願意給與增長股較高市盈率的原因。

你要留意這裡 g 是永久而不是單指一兩年的,所以 g 不可能大過 r,否則這間公司遲早就會大過全球經濟總值!但是當 r 和 g 是非常接近時,PE可以是很高的!

不過到現在,我還是不明白為何股民會用100倍的市盈率去買阿里巴巴,也許這就是我不能在股市賺大錢的原因罷了!

2008-01-06

小心地滑

我的網誌不會害你滑倒,只不過是我常在公共場所見到這些警告牌有感而發。

以前上過小小法律課堂,知道這是源於Case Law的Negligence案例。坦白講,我豪不覺得出示一個這樣的「小心地滑」的告示牌就可使管理者免除任何責任!如果公廁永遠是濕漉漉,商場的雲石地磚永遠是豪華式的光滑,就算有n個告示牌也沒有用。

最可惡是你可否留意門口還有一塊用非常細字體寫的細則牌 ,列明這樣那樣,人們根本不會留意,但如果有任何事件發生,管理者又可以大條道理說已公告天下……

另外,不少管理者只鑽研如何將這些告示牌的條文寫得更可滴水不漏地保障自己,而不是如何改善管理,以減少事件發生的機會!

近一兩年,大陸興起用「溫馨提示」的小告示牌。以前直是覺得有點「溫馨」,不過迎來由於濫用,也溜於人云亦云。